Private Project

Degree of Certainty

50 YEARS AGO, THE BIGGEST US OIL COMPANIES DISCOVERED THE CLIMATE CRISIS AND THEN DECIDED TO DENY IT. A DECISION THAT CREATED THE REALITY WE LIVE IN TODAY.

It’s 1982, and Jackson Miller, a young risk analyst at one of the biggest US oil companies, fears for his job. The company loses millions every day due to falling oil prices, and he must prove that he can come up with ideas that address the issue. But when he comes across the latest findings of the company's own climate science department, who just discovered a rapid rise in global temperature, he has to decide on which side of history he wants to be.

***Shortlist - Cannes Lions - 2026 Young Director Award***

With Trace Guzmán, Peter MacKenzie (Trumbo), John Billingsley (Star Trek), Rob Nagle (Mad Men), and Jonathan von Mering (The Holdovers). Based on true events.

With the support of Amazon MGM Studios, the AFI Conservatory, and the German Film Funding Thüringer Staatskanzlei.

  • Simon Schneider
    Director
  • Simon Schneider
    Writer
  • Maxwell Kagan
    Producer
  • Trace Guzmán
    Key Cast
    "Jackson Miller"
  • Peter Mackenzie
    Key Cast
    "Mr. Leemann"
    Trumbo, Mad Man, Black-sih, The West Wing
  • Rob Nagle
    Key Cast
    "Mr. Bennet"
    Blonde, Mad Men, Grey’s Anatomy
  • John Billingsley
    Key Cast
    "Mr. Williams"
    Star Trek, Out of Time, The Man from Earth
  • Jonathan von Mering
    Key Cast
    "Richard Johnson"
    The Holdovers, The Pitt, The Rehearsal
  • Christian Haines
    Key Cast
    "Mr. Fischer"
    Law & Order
  • Eliot Grigo
    Cinematographer
  • Jason Sen Luo
    Editor
  • Jessica Burnam
    Production Designer
  • Marin Hope, C.S.A.
    Casting Director
    Homeland, The Maze Runner, American Made
  • Kole Butler
    Composer
    F1 (Trailer), Honey Don't (Trailer), Love Lies Bleeding (Trailer)
  • Coleen Chan
    Costume Designer
    The Residence, Bel-Air, 9-1-1
  • Brandy Williams
    Makeup and Hair Artist
  • Ciara Borgards
    VFX Supervisor
  • Delroy Cornick
    Production Sound Mixer
  • Kai Scheer
    Sound Desiginer & Mixer
    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Resident
  • Matt Wallach
    Colorist
    Wuthering Heights, No Time to Die, Jay Kelly, Babylon, Saltburn
  • Project Type:
    Short, Student
  • Genres:
    Drama, Thriller, Historical
  • Runtime:
    16 minutes 38 seconds
  • Completion Date:
    November 10, 2025
  • Production Budget:
    50,000 USD
  • Country of Origin:
    United States
  • Country of Filming:
    United States
  • Language:
    English
  • Shooting Format:
    Digital
  • Aspect Ratio:
    2.39:1
  • Film Color:
    Color
  • First-time Filmmaker:
    No
  • Student Project:
    Yes - American Film Institute
  • Cannes Lions - Young Director Award 2026

    Shortlist - Film School 10 Min and Over
  • Amazon MGM Studio: Innovative Storyteller Initiative Grant 2025

    Winner
  • Carole Dorothy Joyce Grant 2025

    Winner
  • Roy W Dean Short Film Grant 2024 - Finalist

    United States
Director Biography - Simon Schneider

Born in 1996 in Bad Neustadt, Germany. Graduated in 2021 with a Bachelor's degree in film directing from ifs international film school Cologne. He worked as a director and writer for German public television. His short film MADE IN GERMANY won the 2022 Audience Award at the Max Ophüls Preis Film Festival and the Fest Award at the FEST New Directors New Films Festival. His work has been screened at film festivals worldwide and broadcast on networks like ARD, ARTE and Disney+. Since 2023, he is a directing fellow at the AFI American Film Institute Conservatory. DEGREE OF CERTAINTY is his thesis film.

Add Director Biography
Director Statement

The systems and crises we live in today did not arise by chance. They were created by people in power, and their decisions in the past. The story of the discovery of the climate crisis is exactly this story. Not only was it the scientists of the biggest US oil corporations who first discovered the climate crisis in the late 70s / early 80s, it was those same companies who then launched the biggest misinformation crisis in history to deny their own research. To understand how we ended up in the reality we are living today, we have to look into the past and confront the decisions that took us here. Only if we understand the system that created and escalated the climate and misinformation crises by design can we find a way out of them.
- Simon Schneider